Recession, Recovery and Expansion TAR 2011 Summit

The Tucson Association of Realtors 2011 Summit was January 27th and I was fortunate to be able to attend.
The main presenter was Marshall Vest, Director of Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management. He is an authority on Arizona’s economy and is a consultant to a number of Arizona’s largest companies, Arizona’s Governor and Legislature, as well as a number of local governments. With 30 years heading the College’s Forecasting Project, Mr. Vest has authored over 175 articles on the economy. These forecasts are recognized as among the most accurate in the western states, and he is frequently quoted in both the local and national business press.
We also had a chance to hear from the Manager of the Town of Sahuarita, Jim Stahle; the Manager of the Town of Oro Valley, Jerene Watson; the Manager of the Town of Marana, Gilbert Davidson; and the Manager of the City of Tucson, Mike Letcher.
Each speaker shared their view on where our community is going and what they see for 2011.

The following is a re-cap.
According to Mr. Marshall Vest the US economy is in expansion mode. The recovery is over and nationally we have regained (or recovered) the loss and the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is high. Although unemployment is still high and credit is still shrinking the national numbers are up and moving in a positive direction.
In 2005 the real GDP was 13.5 trillion dollars today that number is the same. Confirming that we are back to where we were in 2005. Further support of this is the growth in the real GDP for the last six quarters in a row. The expected growth rate is 2% to 3%.

Arizona’s economy however is just beginning its recovery. This recovery phase is predicted to last to 2013 followed by our expansion phase beginning end of 2013 beginning of 2014.

A quick look at our housing numbers. Presently we have an enormous inventory of vacant homes. In Arizona we have approximately 130,000 homes sitting vacant (where they once received mail and now have not for 90days or more) this is 4.9% of all houses. The normal rate is 1.5% of all homes are vacant.
Nearly half of all Arizona home owners are in a negative equity situation.
The number of foreclosures in Arizona placed us in the second highest state in the US. The highest number of foreclosures was in Nevada. In 2010 one in 17 homes received foreclosure notices which is 5.73%. However, this is down 4% from 2009. To give you some perspective on where Tucson sits within the state of Arizona, while AZ is the 2nd highest state in the nation for foreclosures Tucson is not even in the top 50 city’s for foreclosure. Las Vegas was the number one city in the nation for foreclosures with Phoenix as number two, Orlando, FL was number three and Ft. Lauderdale, FL was number four.
Tucson lost around 30,000 jobs during the recession however they are working hard to make those back up. The top three areas of industry that provide the most employment in Tucson are: 1. High Technology at 12%, 2. Tourism at 12% and 3. U of A at 12%

Retail sales were up in 2010 and are expected to grow 6-7% in 2011.
Tucson will continue to see modest improvements in our recovery in 2011 and this really accelerated in 2012 and 2013.
Investors are starting to come back into the market of home purchases with prices so low they consider this a time they cannot afford NOT to buy. As our inventory of vacant homes comes down new building will once again begin and that will be the jump start to our local economy.

If you would like to know more about the TAR 2011 Summit or hear more specifics on your area (Sahuarita, Oro Valley, Marana or Tucson) please give me a call. I’d love to meet with you and talk about the great things to come for Tucson over the next couple of years.
Thank you.

Renee